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Apple iPad to Destroy Kindle

Apple have ended the rumour mill and officially revealed their new iPad. For some months now, commentators have long been arguing whether the end of the road has been reached for the ebook reader. Amazon have clearly held this market with their Kindle for some time. Until more recently the HP slate annoucement look to show their is a new and more interesting technology war afoot.

 

I am sure Apple will be looking for their device to destory the Kindle with its multi-faceted and multi use operating system - what the Kindle is just an ebook reader, how 1990's! However, the comparison isn't actually quite so simple and could potentially leave Apple hurting. Lets take a closer look at how Apple's tablet stacks up against the Kindle and its expected rival(s) in the future.

 

Lets compare the tech


Technically, there's no question that the iPad is clearly better than the Kindle. Apart from the Kindle's week-long battery life on e-paper, the simple truth is that the iPad is in an entirely different league. It uses a colour display, it has enough juice to display video and it holds eight times more data. Like some e-readers, Apple also has the advantage of Wi-Fi. Having international 3G does give the Kindle Internet access in most countries, but Apple's hardware will have reception in areas 3G can only dream of reaching.

 

Where the Kindle will truly hurt, however, is software. By the nature of the screen, Amazon virtually has to make its device single-purpose: epaper doesn't work for much else beyond text. The company has said it will offer apps, but it's no secret that the very existence of the app platform is in response to worries about what Apple would do. As it stands, the software itself will, again, be limited by the epaper. Apple's solution will borrow the existing iPhone app library, but the fact remains that it will have a true web browser (versus the Kindle's "experimental" version), a full media player, e-mail, advanced games, and maps.

 

A price war


Amazon's best hope is a war based on price, and it's here that Apple must be a little concerned. The price difference is clear: at $499, the basic iPad is about twice as expensive as a 6-inch Kindle; the Kindle DX may be $489 but Apple's unit doesn't have 3G at that level. For a like for like comparison the iPad with 3G is likely to be sold at $629. Amazon's 3G is also provided for free - Apple on the other hand will require a data contract

 

As the Kindle 6 inch model is priced competitively - I cannot see Apple taking that corner of the market with the iPad. But the Kindle DX has been killed almost overnight - a device bearly a year old now appears to be consigned to the bin. It's not cheap enough to be the bargain buy, but not advanced enough to be the high-end model anymore. It's entirely likely that Amazon will have a refresh in February, but short of a color screen and Wi-Fi, it will be a hard sell.

 

So, what about the HP slate? It's still too early to provide a definitive answer, but it's also evident early on that it's taking a fundamentally different approach that could be the real danger to Apple. The prototype seen so far is running a full version of Windows 7 and is theoretically much more powerful from a software standpoint. It can multitask, run Flash video, and handle desktop-level apps. Pricing is still an unknown, but HP has already said that it will be much less than the $1,500 it would have cost a year ago.

 

But it may ironically be the very interface that trips HP up. A stock version of Windows 7 may include multi-touch, but most of its interface isn't at all designed for fingers. How many users will be eager to change their browser settings or setup a home network with miniscule options buttons and text? Even though HP has smartly pitched the slate as a media consumption device like the iPad, the maintenance that a desktop OS needs could actually make the slate unpleasant to use where the iPad's more limited interface may make the ongoing use hassle free.

 

So who will win the battle?


Deciding the outcome of an iPad versus HP slate battle is difficult, but I would say Apple will be the winner here also. Microsft enabled devices have never been truly appealing as a tablet interface. Every concept tried has either been relegated to a niche or has stalled out as it was caught in between categories without convincing users that it's good enough to either replace one of those categories or to justify its existence in a class of it's own. It has always been Windows shoehorned into a smaller touch design, not a unique experience built from the ground up.

 

The iPad has a potentially very strong mix of display, performance and software that should give it the best chance of succeeding.

 

And eventually, Moore’s Law and business model innovation will drive the iPad-like devices to sub-$200 pricing. Unrealistic? The retail price of the iPhone 8GB dropped 83% in 3 years from $599 to $99.

 

What would you do if you ran the Kindle? I know I would be worried
 

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